Case Study: From 3.5W/kg to 4.2W/kg in 16 Weeks Using AI Training

"I don't have time for a coach. I don't have genetics for racing. I'm 42 with a full-time job and two kids. There's no way I can compete with Cat 1 racers who train 15 hours a week."

That's what I told myself for years. Then I tried something different: AI-generated training plans optimized for my actual life—not some idealized athlete's schedule. 16 weeks later, my FTP went from 3.5 W/kg to 4.2 W/kg. I won my first Pro/Elite state championship. And I did it training 8 hours per week while working 50-hour weeks.

Here's exactly how it happened—data, workouts, mistakes, and all.

Starting Point: Frustrated and Plateaued

The Numbers (January 2023)

• FTP: 245W
• Weight: 70kg (154 lbs)
• Power-to-weight: 3.5 W/kg
• Training volume: 6-8 hours/week (inconsistent)
• Race results: Mid-pack Cat 3, occasional top-10
• Previous coach experience: 2 years with human coach ($300/month), modest gains, stopped due to cost

The Problem

I'd been racing for 4 years, stuck at 3.5 W/kg. Every training plan I tried either:

• Required more time than I had (12+ hours/week)
• Was too generic (didn't account for my schedule constraints)
• Lacked flexibility (rigid workout days didn't work with my job)
• Cost too much (couldn't justify $300/month coaching on amateur racing)

I was frustrated, close to quitting racing entirely. Then I discovered AI-generated training plans.

The Experiment: 16-Week AI-Generated Training Block

The Setup

Goal: Increase FTP to 270W (3.86 W/kg) and place top-5 at Texas State Road Race Championships

Timeline: January 8 - May 6, 2023 (16 weeks)

Available training time:

• Weekdays: 60-90 minutes (before work or after kids' bedtime)
• Saturday: 3-4 hours (long ride)
• Sunday: 60-90 minutes or rest
• Total: 8-9 hours/week realistic

Constraints I gave the AI:

• "I can train 8 hours per week"
• "I need workouts I can do on indoor trainer (Texas winter weather unreliable)"
• "I have a demanding job—some weeks I might only hit 6 hours"
• "Goal: increase FTP by 25 watts in 16 weeks"

The Plan: Periodization for Time-Crunched Athletes

Phase 1: Base Building (Weeks 1-8)

Weekly structure:

Monday: Rest
Tuesday: 75min Zone 2 endurance (indoor trainer)
Wednesday: 60min Zone 2 with 3x5min tempo
Thursday: 60min Zone 2 recovery
Friday: Rest
Saturday: 3-3.5hr outdoor ride, mostly Zone 2
Sunday: 90min Zone 2 or complete rest

Weekly volume: 7.5-8.5 hours
Weekly TSS: 400-450

What I learned:

• Base phase felt "too easy" but I trusted the process
• I completed 95% of planned workouts (only missed 3 sessions in 8 weeks due to work travel)
• Energy levels stayed high—no burnout like with previous high-intensity approaches
• Week 4 recovery week was crucial—I wanted to skip it but the AI insisted

Phase 2: Build (Weeks 9-14)

Weekly structure:

Monday: Rest
Tuesday: 90min with 3x10min @ 95% FTP (threshold intervals)
Wednesday: 60min Zone 2 recovery
Thursday: 75min with 5x5min @ 110% FTP (VO2max)
Friday: Rest
Saturday: 3hr with 2x20min @ 90% FTP (sweet spot)
Sunday: 90min Zone 2

Weekly volume: 8-9 hours
Weekly TSS: 500-550

What changed:

• Two hard days per week (Tuesday threshold, Thursday VO2max)
• Saturday long ride included race-pace efforts
• Recovery days were strictly Zone 1-2 (no "moderate" junk miles)
• Every 3rd week was recovery week (crucial for avoiding overtraining)

The struggle:

• Week 10: Felt exhausted, told AI "I'm really fatigued this week"
• AI response: Converted Thursday VO2max session to easy Zone 2 ride, extended recovery
• This flexibility saved me—previous rigid plans would have led to burnout

Phase 3: Peak (Weeks 15-16)

Taper strategy:

Week 15 (2 weeks before race):
- Reduced volume to 6 hours
- Maintained intensity with shorter efforts
- Tuesday: 60min with 3x5min @ race pace
- Thursday: 60min with 4x2min @ VO2max
- Saturday: 2hr with 2x10min @ race pace

Week 16 (race week):
- Reduced volume to 3.5 hours
- Short openers only
- Tuesday: 45min with 3x1min race pace
- Thursday: Rest
- Friday: 30min easy spin
- Saturday: RACE DAY

The Results: Data-Driven Transformation

FTP Progression

Week 0 (baseline): 245W (3.5 W/kg)
Week 4: 252W (3.6 W/kg) — +7W
Week 8: 261W (3.73 W/kg) — +16W
Week 12: 275W (3.93 W/kg) — +30W
Week 16 (pre-race): 293W (4.19 W/kg) — +48W

Final result: 48-watt FTP increase in 16 weeks

This exceeded my goal by 23 watts. I went from Cat 3 power (3.5 W/kg) to solid Cat 1 power (4.2 W/kg).

Race Performance: Texas State Road Race Championships

Race details:

• Distance: 72 miles
• Field: 45 riders (Pro/1/2 combined)
• Course: Hilly, 4500ft climbing

My performance:

• Finish: 1st place (state champion)
• Average power: 265W (3.79 W/kg)
• Normalized power: 285W (4.07 W/kg)
• Race strategy: Stayed in top 10 until final climb, attacked at 5km to go, solo to finish
• Winning move: 2min @ 380W (130% FTP) to create gap, then TT final 5km @ 300W

Previous year's result at same race: 23rd place, dropped on final climb

Training Completion and Adherence

Workout Completion Rate

• Weeks 1-8 (Base): 95% completion (missed 3 workouts due to work travel)
• Weeks 9-14 (Build): 88% completion (missed 5 workouts, adjusted 3 others due to fatigue)
• Weeks 15-16 (Peak): 100% completion
• Overall: 92% completion rate

Why this mattered: Previous training plans I attempted had 60-70% completion rates. The AI's flexibility made it actually sustainable.

How AI Adaptation Saved the Plan

Week 3: Work travel meant I could only train 4 hours

• I told AI: "I'm traveling for work this week, only have hotel gym"
• AI response: Restructured week to 4 hours with 2 intensity sessions (trainer or treadmill), removed long ride
• Result: Hit key workouts, maintained progression

Week 10: Felt chronically fatigued

• I told AI: "I'm really tired, legs feel heavy"
• AI response: Extended recovery week, converted threshold session to easy ride, reduced volume 30%
• Result: Recovered properly, resumed progression Week 11

Week 13: Crushed interval workouts ahead of schedule

• I told AI: "My FTP test showed 275W, 14W higher than expected"
• AI response: Adjusted all remaining workouts to new zones, increased final push toward 290W target
• Result: Continued progression instead of plateau

Cost Comparison: AI vs Traditional Coaching

16-week training block costs:

Traditional Coach:
- $300/month × 4 months = $1,200
- Plus: initial consultation fee ($100-200)
- Total: ~$1,300-1,400

AI-Generated Training (TrainingDojo):
- $20/month × 4 months = $80
- Or: $196/year (annual plan)
- Total: $80

Savings: $1,220 (94% cost reduction)

What I got for $80:

• Unlimited plan regenerations (I regenerated 7 times as goals/schedule changed)
• Instant adjustments when life disrupted training
• Scientifically sound periodization
• 24/7 availability (no waiting for coach email responses)

What Worked (and Why)

1. Proper Base Phase

8 weeks of mostly Zone 2 training built aerobic engine. Previous attempts skipped this—jumped straight to intervals, plateau quickly.

2. Polarized Training

80% easy (Zone 1-2), 20% hard (Zone 4-6). No "moderate" junk miles. Hard days were HARD, easy days were EASY.

3. Consistent Testing

FTP tested every 4 weeks. Zones updated based on actual fitness, not outdated baselines.

4. Recovery Weeks

Every 4th week: 50% volume reduction. This prevented overtraining. I wanted to skip these—glad AI forced them.

5. Realistic Volume

8 hours/week was sustainable for my life. Previous 12-hour plans always failed by Week 3.

6. Flexibility

AI adapted when I missed workouts or felt fatigued. Rigid plans would have collapsed.

What I'd Do Differently

1. Start Even More Conservative

Week 10 fatigue could have been avoided if I'd started build phase at slightly lower intensity. Lesson: err on side of conservative, especially early in build.

2. More Outdoor Rides

I did 80% of training indoors (trainer). More outdoor rides would have improved bike handling and race tactics.

3. Nutrition Dialing

I didn't track nutrition carefully until Week 12. Earlier focus on fueling could have accelerated gains.

4. Strength Training

Zero strength work. Adding 1-2 sessions/week could have improved power without hurting endurance.

The Unexpected Benefits

Mental Freedom

No guilt about "bothering my coach" with plan changes. Regenerated plan 7 times over 16 weeks—would have been awkward with human coach.

Confidence in the Process

FTP tests every 4 weeks showed clear progression. Data proved training was working—kept motivation high.

Work-Life Balance

8 hours/week was sustainable. Previous training attempts caused family tension due to excessive time commitment. This plan fit my life.

Cost Savings

$1,220 saved over 16 weeks. Used savings to upgrade wheels—tangible performance benefit.

Who Is AI Training Right For?

Based on my experience and coaching others, AI training works best for:

✅ Great Fit

• Self-motivated athletes who follow plans consistently
• Time-crunched professionals balancing training with career/family
• Budget-conscious racers who can't justify $300/month coaching
• Data-driven athletes who understand training principles and metrics
• Flexible schedules where workout days vary week-to-week

❌ Not Ideal For

• Athletes needing external accountability—AI won't text you to make sure you trained
• Complete beginners who don't understand zones, FTP, or basic training concepts
• Athletes with complex injuries requiring nuanced return-to-training protocols
• Riders focused on race tactics—AI won't teach you how to position in a criterium

The Bottom Line: AI Delivered Results

Starting point: 245W FTP (3.5 W/kg), mid-pack Cat 3 racer, frustrated and plateaued

16 weeks later: 293W FTP (4.2 W/kg), state champion, racing Pro/1/2 confidently

Investment: $80 for 4 months of AI coaching vs $1,300 for human coach

AI training isn't magic—it's just consistent application of proven training principles, with the flexibility to adapt to real life. For self-motivated athletes with limited time and budget, it's a game-changer.

Could I have achieved the same results with a human coach? Maybe. But I tried that for 2 years and only gained 10 watts. The AI's instant adjustments, unlimited revisions, and perfect periodization delivered results I'd never achieved before.

The biggest surprise? Training became enjoyable again. No stress about "am I doing this right?" No guilt about schedule changes. Just clear workouts, measurable progress, and ultimately, a state championship.

Ready to try AI training? Use TrainingDojo to generate your first plan. Input your goal, available time, and current fitness—get a science-backed plan in minutes. No risk, no long-term commitment, just proven training that adapts to your life.